Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Expected to Intensify Further – March 8th, 201318.8S 150.4E
Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is currently tracking along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge. After TAU 48, an extension of the subtropical ridge to the east is expected to build and assume steering, bringing the cyclone to a more southeastward trajectory. All environmental factors support further intensification during the forecast period with a peak of 95 knots expected by TAU 72.
TC 19S should begin to weaken by TAU 120 as Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) increases and ocean parameters become less favorable. Model guidance remains in poor agreement with GFS continuing to depict a curve to the southwest and NOGAPS showing a slow drift to the south. The only model tracker that has remained consistent and verified the best is the ECMWF. Therefore, the current forecast lies close to its solution and remains inline with the previous forecast. Due to the poor model agreement, track forecast confidence remains low.