Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Forecast to Intensify Before Making Landfall – February 26th, 201317.5S 118.1E
Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S), is tracking slowly along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge (STR) but is forecast to turn south-southwestward as the western branch of the STR builds south of the system within the next 24 hours.
After TAU 72, TC 17S will track southward to south-southeastward ahead of a deep shortwave trough. With the exception of the UKMO tracker, dynamic model guidance is in good agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track, which is positioned close to the multi-model consensus.
Rusty is forecast to intensify until making landfall with a peak intensity of 100 knots at TAU 24. After TAU 36, the system will weaken overland and dissipate by TAU 96. Due to the broad center and uncertainty in the short-term track, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Maximum significant wave height at 20 feet.