Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Expected to Make Landfall Over Western Australia – February 25th, 201317.9S 118.1E
Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S), is tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical steering ridge (STR) and is forecast to turn south-southwestward as the western branch of the STR builds temporarily into Western Australia. The recent upper-air sounding provides evidence that the STR is already building over Western Australia with southeasterly to southerly flow in the low- to mid-levels.
Dynamic model guidance is trending toward a more south-southwestward to southwestward track after TAU 12, therefore the JTWC forecast track was shifted accordingly. After making landfall near TAU 72, TC 17S should turn southward ahead of a deep shortwave trough.
Rusty has rapidly intensified over the past 18 hours with a 25-knot increase in intensity since 24/00z and is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying through landfall due to radial outflow and warm SSTs. TC 17S is expected to dissipate slowly overland but should dissipate below 35 knots by TAU 120. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.