Tropical Cyclone Imelda East of Madagascar – April 15th, 201319.3S 52.0E
Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) is tracking along the southwest periphery of a near-equatorial ridge and is expected to recurve westward after TAU 36 as a building subtropical ridge to the south assumes steering.
As the system continues to move poleward, the vertical wind shear (VWS) will steadily increase causing its gradual erosion and, finally, dissipation by TAU 72. The available numeric guidance is in overall good agreement with WBAR as the sole outlier extending the track southeastward beyond 72 hours. The remainder of the models recurve the vortex westward, albeit at varying increments. The JTWC track forecast is laid closely to model consensus with high confidence.