Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Tracking Southwestward – February 20th, 201323.2S 38.6E
Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S), located approximately 400 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked southwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 25 feet.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates a well developed system that continues to rapidly consolidate and has formed a large 25nm eye with deep convection surrounding the eye. The initial intensity is assessed at 70 knots based on an average of Dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW, KNES and FMEE, ranging from 65 to 77 knots. Upper-level analysis reveals TC 16S remains in a favorable environment of excellent outflow and low (5-10 knots) vertical wind shear.
Haruna has been tracking erratically over the past 12 hours in a weak steering environment, but has been trending on a southern track. This weak steering environment is forecast to persist for the next 24 hours until a deep mid-latitude trough passes south of Madagascar. After tau 24, a deep-layered subtropical ridge is forecast to build in northeast of the system and provide a more southeast track.