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Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Passing Over Southern Madagascar, Expected to Weaken – February 23rd, 2013

24.7S 44.2E

February 23rd, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) – February 22nd, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) - February 22nd, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Intense Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) is tracking along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge but is embedded within upper-level westerly flow associated with a shortwave trough. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track, therefore, there is high confidence in the forecast track.

The system is expected to continue weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear associated with persistent westerly flow as well as cooler SSTs (after TAU 24), therefore, TC 16S should dissipate by TAU 72. The remnants will likely track westward toward Madagascar as a strong subtropical high builds to the south after TAU 48.

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