Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) Passing Over Southern Madagascar, Expected to Weaken – February 23rd, 201324.7S 44.2E
Intense Tropical Cyclone Haruna (16S) is tracking along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge but is embedded within upper-level westerly flow associated with a shortwave trough. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track, therefore, there is high confidence in the forecast track.
The system is expected to continue weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear associated with persistent westerly flow as well as cooler SSTs (after TAU 24), therefore, TC 16S should dissipate by TAU 72. The remnants will likely track westward toward Madagascar as a strong subtropical high builds to the south after TAU 48.