Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Shifts to South-southeastward Motion – February 14th, 201314.8S 75.9E
Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) continues to track around a subtropical ridge (STR) located to the east, and has shifted from a southwestern track to a more south-southeastward motion over the past 12 hours. As the system continues to track along the southwestern quadrant of the STR, an approaching mid- latitude trough will quickly lead to strong VWS over the LLCC.
Sea surface temperatures are currently marginal and have been steadily declining over the past 12 hours, with further cooling expected through TAU 72. The steady weakening trend and increasing interaction with the mid-latitude trough will begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 48. ETT will be complete by TAU 72 as VWS and SST values rapidly deteriorate. Model guidance is in fair agreement leading to high confidence in the JTWC forecast track.