Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S) Southwest of Madagascar, Expected to Weaken – February 3rd, 201327.4S 50.6E
Tropical Cyclone Felleng (13S), is tracking along the western edge of a subtropical high (STH) to the east. Here, it can be seen southwest of Madagascar, which is partially visible in the upper left corner.
A shortwave trough currently digging the western flank of the system is expected to weaken the STH and cause the cyclone to track on a more southeastward direction. As TC 13S tracks further poleward, the strong VWS is expected to gradually erode the system. By TAU 36, the cyclone will commence extra-tropical transition as it gets embedded in the baroclinic zone, becoming a gale-force cold core low by TAU 48.
The available numerical guidance is in tight agreement with WBAR on the left of and UKMET on the right of the model envelope. There is high confidence in the JTWC forecast that is laid just to the left of and slightly faster than consensus. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet.