Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S) Tracks West-Southwestward – November 4th, 201014.2S 95.8E
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek (02S), located approximately 180 nm south-southwest of the Cocos Islands, has tracked west-southwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.
Animated infrared imagery depicts an exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convective banding over the southeast quadrant. Animated water vapor imagery depicts increasing northerly vertical wind shear (VWS) over the past 12 hours.
Imagery and recent upper-level wind data indicate 20-30 knot northerly flow associated with an anticylone near 12S 103E. Eespite the increased VWS and exposed LLCC, an ASCAT image supports a well-defined, symmetric wind field with numerous 30-35 knot winds.
The current intensity was assessed at 40 knots based on the ASCAT low bias as well as Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 knots.
TC 02S is tracking west-southwestward along the northern periphery of a finger of the low- mid-level subtropical ridge. The model trackers are in good agreement through TAU 48 with the exception of WBAR, which tracks the system southward through southeastward.
Anggrek is expected to weaken through the period due to cooler SST and increasing VWS after TAU 24 associated with an approaching, deepening shortwave trough, and should dissipate as a significant TC in the next 24-36 hours.