Super Typhoon Jangmi (19W) – September 27th, 2008
Over the past 12 hours, Super Typhoon Jangmi has maintained strength while tracking west-northwestward at 13 knots. animated infrared satellite imagery and a 271134z SSMIS image depicted a round 18 nm eye with an intense, symmetric core of deep convection and excellent convective banding over all quadrants.
The primary models have shown increasing agreement with a recurvature scenario near tau 48, and increased spread in the extended period.
The latest 500 mb analysis depicts a poleward oriented sub-tropical ridge east-northeast of the system, and a weaker east-west oriented str northwest of Taiwan extending westward into central China.
Animated water vapor imagery indicates good radial outflow, although the system is beginning to develop annular characteristics with much of the convection now isolated to a broad band of deep convection surrounding the eye of the system.
There is excellent confidence in the current position and 12-hour storm motion which are based on microwave and infrared eye fixes. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 140 knots from RJTD and PGTW, AMSUB intensity estimates of 138 knots, and excellent aircraft reconnaissance reports of 130 knots near the center.
Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau issued a land alert on Typhoon Jangmi after upgrading the storm to a Super Typhoon, as wind speeds accelerated to an estimated 227 kilometers (141 miles) an hour.
The eye of the typhoon was about 560 kilometers east-southeast of the southern coastal town of Eluanbi at 11:30 a.m. local time, the bureau reported on its Web site. The eye may move to 140 kilometers east of Eluanbi offshore by 11 a.m. tomorrow.
It issued alerts today warning of landslides, falling rocks and floods, adding to an alert sent yesterday for shipping vessels. Winds are already affecting the eastern and southern parts of Taiwan, the bureau said.
Jangmi may land in China on the night of September 29 after passing through Taiwan, the Fujian Meteorological Bureau said on its Web site today. The typhoon could severely affect the eastern Chinese province as it gains strength, it said. Rainstorms are forecast along the region’s coastal cities on September 29 and 30.
Jangmi is still a 135kt category 4 typhoon, but it’s possible it may be upgraded to category 5 in the next JTWC advisory.