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Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Slows Slightly

16.1S 145.5E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 218 nm northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked westward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 35 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates the system has slowed and begun a slight turn equatorward during the past 12 hours. Dvorak assessments are in good agreement and confirm a relatively steady intensity during the past 15 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Make Landfall Over Cape York Peninsula, Australia

17S 145.5E

April 30th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) surged in intensity yesterday as a boost in poleward outflow occurred simultaneously with a boost in gradient level flow due to an anticyclone moving off-shore of Queensland.

The system will remain in its current environment of 29 degree surface waters and 15-20 knots of vertical wind shear (VWS) through landfall over the Cape York Peninsula. Track guidance is in excellent agreement up to landfall. Guidance is also consistent that the system will remain weak once it emerges into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Off Coast of Australia – April 30th, 2013

14.8S 145.5E

April 30th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – April 29th, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 315 nm northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation center (LLCC) has continued to organize, with Dvorak estimates from indicating the LLCC has intensified to warning status.

Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is located below the axis of a subtropical ridge, which is providing favorable poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are between 28 to 29 degrees Celsius and are expected to remain favorable as the LLCC tracks westward, making landfall between TAU 24 and 36.

Land interaction and dry air entrainment over Australia will start the dissipation of the system by TAU 48 with complete dissipation by TAU 72. There is a high level of uncertainty with the forecast, as the system moves back into the gulf of Carpentaria, due to the mix of dry air entrainment and favorable surface conditions competing for the dominant influence on intensity

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Weakening

21.7S 52.7E

April 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 15th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 16th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) is currently tracking southward along the western periphery of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge but is forecast to turn westward as it weakens and begins to steer under the influence of a broad, transitory midlatitude ridge building to the south.

Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement, therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. The system is expected to weaken through the forecast period due to persistent moderate to strong vertical wind shear associated with subtropical westerly flow, and marginal sea surface temperature values near 26C.

Surface winds over the southern semi-circle are forecast to remain near gale-force levels due to the enhanced gradient associated with the aforementioned high building south of the system. Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) with 55-Knot Winds

20.8S 52.7E

April 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 14th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), located approximately 370 nm east of La Reunion, has tracked south-southeastward at 05 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts rapidly decaying deep convection, now sheared about 70 nm east of the system center. An SSMIS image depicts well-defined, tightly-wrapped shallow convective banding wrapping into the low- level circulation center with an isolated area of deep convection near 20S 64E.

There is good confidence in the initial position based on this image as well as an AMSU composite image. The initial intensity is assessed at 55 knots based on Dvorak intensity estimates ranging from 45 to 65 knots.

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