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Intensity of Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) at 45 Knots

15.2N 84.3E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 14th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B), located approximately 246 nm southward of Kolkata, India, has tracked north-northeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates the low level circulation center (LLCC) remains under an area of deep convection, but is difficult to identify as the organization of the convection remains poorly defined. A series of scatterometry passes support 35 to 40 knot winds near the center of the LLCC. The current intensity has been maintained at 45 knots based on Dvorak estimates and the persistent convection over the LLCC.

Cyclonic Storm Mahasen (01B) Forecast to Maintain Intensity

14.1N 82.9E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is located near latitude 17.0°N and longitude 87.5°E, about 850 km (530 mi) northwest of Portblair, 600 km (370 mi) south-southwest of Kolkata, 380 km (240 mi) southeast of Paradip and 750 km (470 mi) southwest of Chittagong.

The storm is forecast to maintain intensity and move northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast close to Chittagong by late hours of 16 May. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots. Estimated minimum central pressure is at 990 hPa. Dvorak intensity of the storm is at T3.0.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Tracking Northwestward at 10 Knots

12.3S 144.3E

May 2nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty Zane (23P) – May 1st, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - May 1st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P), located approximately 270 nm north- northwest of Cairns, Australia, has tracked northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots based on Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging between 30 to 35 knots and observations in the area. Upper-level analysis reveals an unfavorable environment as strong to moderate (20-30 knots) northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS) has persisted over the system.

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) Weakening

13.4S 145.5E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Animated infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) has revealed an elongating and fully-exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) with convection displaced 185 nm from the LLCC. An SSMI 85ghz microwave image reveals the overall organization of the system has become increasingly poor as the convection has further displaced from the LLCC.

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) Expected to Dissipate Over Gulf of Carpentaria

14.6S 146.9E

May 1st, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Zane (23P) – April 30th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Zane (23P) - April 30th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 23P

Tropical Cyclone Zane (23P) is being driven westward by a mid- to high- level anticyclone over the Coral Sea, which is weakening and pulling away towards the Solomon Islands.

In anticipation of the weaker steering influence, the JTWC track forecast hedges a little bit slower and poleward, but remains close to, consensus. Intensity guidance consistently indicates rapid weakening and dissipation of the system over the Gulf of Carpentaria, primarily due to VWS.

Although animated water vapor imagery is beginning to reveal some increased subsidence over the western side of the storm, solid radial outflow persists along with a weak poleward tap. Upper level streamline analysis depicts a ridge firmly entrenched over the Gulf of Carpentaria and top end of Australia, which will keep the system under less than 20 knots of VWS along its track.

Hence the VWS values given by the guidance appear over-done, and the JTWC forecast follows a slower dissipation trend. Track confidence is high through the first 48 hours, then very low afterwards due to the uncertainty in the intensity (and hence the associated steering environment) after TAU 48

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