March 17th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lua (17S) - March 16th, 2012

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Track of TS 17S

Tropical Cyclone Lua (17S), located approximately 150 nm north of Port Hedland, Australia, has tracked southeastward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Port Hedland radar imagery indicates the LLCC passed over Rowley Shoals at approximately 01:00am local time.

Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that the system has increased its horizontal extent while maintaining tightly-curved bands wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC). Recent microwave satellite imagery reveals the deepest convection is location along the western semi-circle of the LLCC, which is due to light to moderate (10-20 knots) easterly vertical wind shear. The current intensity is assessed at 90 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 32 feet. Sustained 10-minute winds were reported at 73 knots.

TC 17S is forecast to continue tracking southeastward, making landfall east of Port Hedland in approximately 12 hours. The system is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 95 knots prior to landfall and then rapidly weaken with dissipation over land forecast by TAU 36.

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March 12th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 16S - March 11th, 2012

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Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Koji (16S), located approximately 1200 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has accelerated southeastward at 18 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center (LLCC) has become fully exposed as the main convection weakened and decoupled to the southeast. Upper level analysis indicates the system has moved further away from the ridge axis into an area of strong (30-40 knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear.

Additionally, along-track sea surface temperatures have dipped to below 25 celsius. TC 16S is now tracking on the back side of the steering ridge to the northeast and is expected to rapidly decay and dissipate by TAU 24. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

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March 1st, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm 15S - February 29th, 2012

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Track of TS 15S

Tropical Cyclone 15S, located approximately 490 nm southwest of Diego Garcia, has tracked west-southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 8 feet. Animated infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image show increased deep convection tightly wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center (LLCC), from which the initial position was based.

Initial intensity estimates ranged from 30 to 35 knots. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located directly under the ridge axis in an area of low vertical wind shear. An upper level trough to the west is increasing outflow. TC 15S is currently tracking along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level steering ridge.

After TAU 36, the system is expected to turn poleward when an upper level trough weakens the steering ridge. The system should significantly weaken by TAU 72, due to increased vertical wind shear associated with an approaching upper level trough. TC 15S will begin to turn southwestward as the low level steering ridge rebuilds in to the south. The system will dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone by TAU 96.

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February 13th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Typhoon 12S Giovanna - February 13th, 2012

Typhoon 12S - Infrared Image

Typhoon 12s (Giovanna), located approximately 400 nm east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at 14 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the system has re-intensified coincident with the emergence of a highly symmetrical 40-nm diameter eye. The microwave image shows the eye is enveloped by a continuous ring of ultra-deep convection, which is in turn surrounded by a concentric ring of shallow reflectivities, characteristic of intense annular cyclones.

The initial position was placed with high confidence over the eye feature and the initial intensity was based on Dvorak estimates from PGTW and FMEE. Upper level analysis indicates the cyclone has formed its own mesoscale anticyclone that is providing excellent radial outflow.

Giovanna is expected to continue tracking along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension to the south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of Madagascar shortly before tau 24, then exit into the Mozambique channel by tau 48 before making a secondary and final landfall into southern Mozambique. Maximum significant wave height at 130000z is 28 feet.

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February 11th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P) - February 10th, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P), located approximately 635 nm west-southwest of Tonga, has tracked east-southeastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. animated infrared satellite imagery shows the system has maintained its overall convective structure and consolidation.

The cyclone remains compact and symmetric around a well-defined 20-nm diameter eye. The initial position is placed with high confidence over the eye feature and the initial intensity is based on a congruent estimate of 77 knots from PGTW and KNES. Upper level analysis indicates the system is bordered to the north and east with ridge axes in a zone of low vertical wind shear (VWS).

TC 10P is expected to continue tracking along the southern periphery of a hyper-extended subtropical ridge (STR). An eventual break in the ridge after TAU 48 will pull the cyclone equatorward into a col area causing a drastic reversal in storm motion. Concurrently, VWS will increase and dissipate the system. The available numerical guidance is in good agreement until the equatorward portion of the track where the model envelope significantly spreads. Maximum significant wave height is 26 feet.

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February 9th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P) - February 5th, 2012

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Track of TC 10P

On February 2, TCWC Darwin reported that a tropical low has formed along the Gulf of Carpentaria. The storm made landfall on the northern tip of Queensland. On the same day, TCWC Darwin issued their final advisory as it crossed the Queensland territory.

On February 3, it was located east of Cairns, the BoM and the JTWC issued a TCFA on the tropical low, as it continued to gain strength over the Coral Sea.

On February 4, the JTWC upgraded it into a tropical storm and designated as 10P, while the BoM designated the storm as Tropical Low 12U. Later that day, the BoM upgraded the system into a Category 1 Tropical cyclone, naming it Jasmine.

On 6 February, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved into the RSMC Nadi’s area of responsibility, where it continued to intensify into a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. Early on 7 February, Jasmine completely left the BoM basin for good.

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January 28th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (08S) - January 27th, 2012

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Track of TC 08S

Tropical Cyclone Funso (08S), located approximately 420 nm east of Maputo, Mozambique, had tracked southeastward at 06 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts an eye that is beginning to become more ragged with warming cloud tops near the eyewall. Satellite imagery is also showing the beginning of the breakdown of the eyewall in the northwest quadrant, and animated satellite water vapor imagery shows that deep convection is weakening rapidly.

The current intensity is based on the high side of Dvorak estimates at 90 knots based on the presence of the eye feature. The current position is based on a the eye feature with high confidence. TC 08S is tracking slowly south-southeastward along the western periphery of the deep subtropical ridge (STR) and is forecast to accelerate southeastward as it rounds the STR and re-curves into the midlatitude westerlies.

The system will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures within the next 12-24 hours and as it encounters increasing vertical wind shear after TAU 12. Near TAU 24, Funso is expected to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) and should complete ETT by TAU 36. Maximum significant wave height is 28 feet.

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January 28th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (08S) - January 24th, 2012

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On January 17, RSMC La Reunion started to monitor an area of low pressure that had developed within the Mozambique Channel about 620 km (365 mi) to the northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Over the next two days the area of low pressure rapidly developed further in an area of favourable conditions.

During the overnight hours of January 18, a ship carrying 54 people sank on its way from Anjouan to Mayotte amidst rough seas produced by Funso. At least 15 passengers drowned while dozens remain missing.

Early on January 19, RSMC La Reunion declared the disturbance Tropical Depression 08, shortly before the JTWC also initiated advisories and declared the depression “Tropical Cyclone 08S” as it became equivalent to a tropical storm. Later that day the Malagasy national weather service named the storm Funso before early the next day as it continued to intensify quickly, RSMC La Reunion declared that Funso had intensified into a tropical cyclone.

Due to land interaction, Funso weakened slightly on January 22-23, but soon reintensified into an intense tropical cyclone as it started heading south. Although the core of the storm remained offshore, over three million people were affected by tropical storm-force winds. On January 23 national television in Mozambique announced 12 deaths in the northern Zambezia Province, following the intense cyclone’s passage close to land. Seven of the fatalities occurred in the Maganja da Costa District and one was in the provincial capital Quelimane. More than 5000 people were displaced by the weather conditions and the only road connecting the capital Maputo to the north was reported to be seriously damaged when the Komati River flooded its banks, cutting off the capital city. At least 70,000 people were without a clean drinking water supply following the storm, and more than 56,000 were left homeless in Mozambique.

Authorities in Malawi were concerned about the fate of more than 450 families that lost their homes in the southern Nsanje District due to the effects of Funso, which mostly affected Bangula and Phokela, as three rivers overflowed. Heavy rains destroyed more than 320 houses and flooded 125 more and local crops were devastated, leaving whole communities at risk of starvation.

Funso strengthened a little more on January 24, the day this image was captured, as it continued to move southward slowly. On January 24 the death toll in Mozambique jumped to at least 25 as government officials were trying to reach the hardest-hit areas in the northern Zambezia province. Authorities confirmed that they expected the numbers to rise even further.

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December 31st, 2011 Category: Tropical Cyclones, Vegetation Index

Tropical Cyclone Thane (06B) - December 29th, 2011

This FAPAR image shows the vegetation index of Sri Lanka. Photosynthetic activity ranges mostly from good (green) to high (rusty red) throughout the island nation. The southern parts seem to have a slightly higher index than the northern areas.

Partially visible just north of Sri Lanka is Tropical Cyclone Thane (06B), which reached its peak intensity around the time this image was captured, 3-minute sustained windspeeds of 140 km/h (85 mph)

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