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Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) Much Closer to Landfall Over Australia

17.5S 147.0E

February 3rd, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Yasi - February 1st, 2011

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Track of TC 11P

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P), located approximately 70 nm east-southeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a 30 nm eye and the Cairns radar depicts a well-defined eyewall. The initial intensity is based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 127 to 140 knots.

TC 11P has slightly slowed in translation speed along the northern periphery of a deep layer subtropical steering ridge and is expected to make landfall south of Cairns within the next 6 hours.

The system will begin to weaken as it tracks over land and dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone by TAU 36. Maximum significant wave height is 42 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) Poised to Make Landfall Near Cairns, Australia

16.7S 148.2E

February 1st, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Yasi - January 30th, 2011

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Track of TC 11P

Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P), located approximately 450 nm east-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 17 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a 10 nm eye, from which the initial position was based. the
initial intensity estimates range from 115 to 127 knots.

A poleward outflow channel into an upper level low to the South, along with good equatorward outflow, has allowed for rapid intensification within the past 12 hours.

TC 11P is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a deep layer subtropical steering ridge and is expected to track generally west-southwestward throughout the forecast period.

The system should continue to intensify due to excellent outflow, low vertical wind shear, and favorable oceanic conditions.

Around TAU 24, the system is forecast to make landfall just south of Cairns and begin weakening as it tracks inland. Maximum significant wave height is 38 feet.

Area of Convection Over South Australia

27.6S 138.5E

February 23rd, 2011 Category: Clouds, Lakes, Rivers, Salt Flats

Australia - January 31st, 2011

An interesting, ball-shaped area of convection can be observed in South Australia, north of the Spencer Gulf. This area of convection was present at the same time Tropical Cyclone Yasi (11P) was affecting Queensland, Australia, to the north.

Several of the rivers in Australia’s Channel Country can be observed as brown lines just northwest of the convective area. To the southwest, Lake Torrens and Lake Gardner appear as large white salt flats.