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Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Stationary Over Past Six Hours

17.9S 116.7E

February 26th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) – February 26th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) - February 26th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 17S

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S), located approximately 70 nm north- northeast of Port Hedland, Australia, has been stationary over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 21 feet.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a recent increase in deep convection within the eyewall structure. The low level circulation center (LLCC) has slowed over the past 12 hours and for the past six hours has been completely stationary.

Sea surface temperatures near the coast are very favorable (32 degrees Celsius) and have been enhancing the system’s intensity, which is currently at 95 knots. The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES and APRF ranging from 90 to 105 knots.

Upper level analysis indicates radial outflow continues to support the intensification, with a mid-latitude trough south of the LLCC providing additional support to the southeastern outflow channel. The trough appears to be weakening the western extent of a subtropical high (STH) located over Central Australia, which has been the primary steering influence.

As the trough continues to track eastward, the STH should re-engage causing the system to track southward into southwestern Australia. Intensity should persist over the next 12 hours until TC 17S makes landfall around TAU 24. Beyond TAU 36 increasing land interaction and vertical wind shear will quickly lead to dissipation of Rusty as a tropical cyclone. Model guidance is in good agreement with the forecast track and weakening scenario once the system makes landfall. Based on the good agreement in model guidance, there is high confidence in the forecast track.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Forecast to Intensify Before Making Landfall – February 26th, 2013

17.5S 118.1E

February 26th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) – February 26th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) - February 26th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 17S

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S), is tracking slowly along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge (STR) but is forecast to turn south-southwestward as the western branch of the STR builds south of the system within the next 24 hours.

After TAU 72, TC 17S will track southward to south-southeastward ahead of a deep shortwave trough. With the exception of the UKMO tracker, dynamic model guidance is in good agreement and supports the JTWC forecast track, which is positioned close to the multi-model consensus.

Rusty is forecast to intensify until making landfall with a peak intensity of 100 knots at TAU 24. After TAU 36, the system will weaken overland and dissipate by TAU 96. Due to the broad center and uncertainty in the short-term track, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Maximum significant wave height at 20 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Tracking South-southeastward

17.3S 119.5E

February 25th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) – February 25th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) - February 25th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 17S

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S),

located approximately 105nm north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia, has tracked south- southeastward at 03 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts tightly-curved deep convective banding wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center. Animated water vapor imagery indicates radial outflow with good poleward outflow enhanced by a sharp upper-level trough positioned over Western Australia.

An AMSU image and Port Hedland radar imagery show a broad (60nm to 70nm diameter) center with intense convective banding over the southern semi-circle. There is fair confidence in the initial position due to the large nature of the center although recent radar imagery suggests that the system is drifting slowly southward. The initial intensity remains assessed at 75 knots based on the higher range of Dvorak intensity estimates.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Expected to Make Landfall Over Western Australia – February 25th, 2013

17.9S 118.1E

February 25th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) – February 25th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) - February 25th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 17S

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S), is tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical steering ridge (STR) and is forecast to turn south-southwestward as the western branch of the STR builds temporarily into Western Australia. The recent upper-air sounding provides evidence that the STR is already building over Western Australia with southeasterly to southerly flow in the low- to mid-levels.

Dynamic model guidance is trending toward a more south-southwestward to southwestward track after TAU 12, therefore the JTWC forecast track was shifted accordingly. After making landfall near TAU 72, TC 17S should turn southward ahead of a deep shortwave trough.

Rusty has rapidly intensified over the past 18 hours with a 25-knot increase in intensity since 24/00z and is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying through landfall due to radial outflow and warm SSTs. TC 17S is expected to dissipate slowly overland but should dissipate below 35 knots by TAU 120. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) Near Coast of Western Australia – February 24th, 2013

18.6S 116.0E

February 24th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) – February 25th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S) - February 25th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 17S

Tropical Cyclone Rusty (17S), located approximately 160 nm north of Port Hedland, Australia, has tracked south-southwestward at 03 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating system with a 20-nm eye. An AMSU image and Port Hedland radar depict an intense spiral band extending from Broome westward over Port Hedland then wrapping into the western quadrant of the system.

Surface observations along the northwest coast of Australia indicate persistent gale-force winds associated with this spiral band. Based on the eye fixes, there is high confidence in the initial position. The initial intensity is assessed at 60 knots, higher than the Dvorak intensity estimates of 55 knots, based on the impressive structure evident in satellite, microwave and radar imagery.

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