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Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Moves South and Weakens

26.6S 142W

February 6th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 5th, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 5th, 2010

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Track of TC 12P - February 5th, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 12P

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 295 nautical miles south of Tahiti, has tracked southeastward at 15 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

The cyclone has begun to weaken and accelerate poleward since the previous forecast. Both PGTW and PHFO have dropped their current intensity estimates half a T-number to 5.5 or 102 knots since the previous synoptic hour. The southern eye wall has begun to erode as the southernmost convection is sheared into the mid-latitude flow, leaving the eye ragged and irregular.

The cyclone will continue to transit along the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer subtropical ridge to the east while steadily weakening due to increased vertical wind shear and unfavorable sea surface temperatures/oceanic heat. The cyclone will begin to interact with a baroclinic boundary near TAU 36 and will transition to a fully extratropical system by TAU 48. Model guidance remains in relatively good agreement with the exception of the eastern outlier, TCLAPS.

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Located Southwest of Tahiti

14.7S 148.3W

February 5th, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 4th, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 4th, 2010

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Track of TC 12P - February 5th, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 12P

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 185 nautical miles southwest of Tahiti, has tracked southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 23 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates a 17 nautical mile eye with deep convection decreasing in areal extent. This is evident in a an AMSU 89 GHZ microwave image which shows a symmetric eye wall with tightly curved convective banding wrapping into the center with slight erosion of deep convection over the southwest quadrant.

Water vapor imagery indicates that the system has good radial outflow, with enhanced poleward outflow associated with a midlatitude trough south of the system.

TC 12P has maintained an intensity of 115 knots over the past 12 hours with current Dvorak estimates of 102 to 115 knots. Upper level analysis indicates that the system is located in a favorable environment with weak vertical wind shear and an enhanced poleward outflow channel.

Oli is currently tracking southeastward along the southwestern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The system is forecast to accelerate and continue tracking southeastward as it interacts with the baroclinic zone and begins extra-tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 36. By TAU 72, TC 12P is expected to complete ETT. Numerical guidance is in good agreement with this forecast, with the exception of TCLAPS, which rapidly decreases the intensity and tracks the system south-southwest.

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Tracks Eastward

14.1S 164.5W

February 3rd, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 2nd, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 2nd, 2010

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Track of TC 12P - February 2nd, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 12P

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 480 nautical miles west of
Bora Bora, has tracked eastward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convection has continued to flare and dissipate over the past 12 hours near the low level circulation center (LLCC). A broken band of deeper convection to the north of the LLCC is apparent, but has started to elongate east-west, out pacing the LLCC. This image shows convection associated with the system.

The upper level environment remains favorable with a point source anticyclone enhancing the equatorward and poleward out-flow channels. The LLCC has been difficult to locate under the sporadic convection, however, the current position is in fair agreement with the fixes from PGTW and PHFO.

Intensity has kept constant at 45 knots as the organization and convection have seen only small changes over the past 12 hours. The current forecast is based on the consensus of available model guidance, which indicates the mid-level near equatorial ridge, that is currently steering TC 12P, will track the system towards a developing extension of a subtropical ridge (STR) located to the southeast of Oli. This extension will then shift the track more south-southeast around TAU 36 to 48.

The track speed is expected to remain slow through the forecast period as the STR extension is expected to be weak through TAU 120. Intensity is forecast to increase through TAU 72 as improving upper level support enhances the poleward outflow, with favorable surface conditions persisting through TAU 72. However, vertical wind shear will begin to increase beyond TAU 72 to unfavorable levels hindering outflow. The lower level will also begin to track into a less favorable surface environment beyond TAU 72.

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) Expected to Intensify Steadily

February 2nd, 2010 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 1st, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P) - February 1st, 2010

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Track of TC 12P - February 2nd, 2010 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 12P

Tropical Cyclone Oli (12P), located approximately 540 nautical miles north-northwest of Rarotonga, has tracked southeastward at 20 knots over the past six hours. The initial intensity of 50 knots is based on Dvorak intensity estimates ranging from 45 to 55 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet.

The system will continue to track along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge for the next 48 hours, then slow as the subtropical ridge to the east picks up the system and tracks it increasingly poleward.

All the while, the cyclone will continue to steadily intensify under improved upper level venting and low vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures will not fall below 26 degrees Celsius until near TAU 96, around the same time the cyclone will begin extratropical transition. Vertical wind shear will also elevate as the system gains latitude. Both of these factors will contribute to slow weakening beyond TAU 72.

This forecast has been shifted south of the last forecast in response to the cyclone trending southeastward over the past 12 hours. The track has also been slowed, especially in the later TAUs, in line with a slower model consensus.