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Area of Convection Persisting by Mozambique Coast

17.8S 37.4E

January 27th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 26th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 26th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The area of convection previously located near 19.8S 41.3E, is now located near 19.5S 40.1E (click here for previous images), approximately 390 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The system is actually situated by the coast of Mozambique, which can be seen through the convection in the full image due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated low-level circulation center (LLCC) with isolated deep convection flaring over the west quadrant. An SSMI 37 ghz image indicates only weak, shallow convective banding wrapping loosely into the LLCC.

A ASCAT image shows an elongated circulation center with 20 to 25 knot winds; some stronger winds were indicated over the southern semi-circle but were surrounded by rain-flagged data. Upper-level analysis indicates a generally unfavorable environment with moderate (20 to 25 knots) vertical wind shear.

The system is located west of an anticyclone and is under diffluent, easterly flow; however, poleward and equatorward outflow remain limited. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Area of Convection Continues Near Madagascar and Mozambique

January 22nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 21st, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 21st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The area of convection previously located near 24.7S 37.5E (click here for previous images) is now located near 23.6S 38.8E, approximately 535 nm southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and east of Mozambique. In the full image, the outline of the coast of Mozambique can be observed in grey, through the convection.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection sheared southeast of center. A WINDSAT 37 ghz image indicates shallow convective banding wrapping tightly into an elongated LLCC. An ASCAT image depicts a highly asymmetric wind field with 30 to 35 knot winds. Upper-level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located east of the subtropical ridge and is embedded within the upper-level trough.

The system is under strong northwesterly vertical wind shear (20 to 30 knots) and is positioned just equatorward of the subtropical jet and strong northwesterly flow (50 to 70 knots), which is providing excellent poleward outflow. The system is assessed as subtropical and has potential to transition into a warm-core system within the next two to three days as it tracks slowly eastward.

Dynamic models indicate that the subtropical ridge will re-build over the LLCC and the total precipitable water imagery indicates a deep moisture core sufficient for further development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

Area of Convection Between Madagscar and Mozambique Could Become Cyclone

23.4S 37.2E

January 22nd, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 21st, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 21st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection is located near 24.7S 37.5E, approximately 275 nm east-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection sheared approximately 55 nm southeast of center. An AMSU image indicates formative deep convective banding over the southeast quadrant and disorganized, shallow banding elsewhere.

An ASCAT image depicts a highly asymmetric wind field with 35 to 40 knot winds displaced south and southeast of a weak (15 to 25 knots) core. Upper-level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located east of the subtropical ridge and is embedded within the upper-level trough.

The system is under strong northwesterly vertical wind shear (20 to 40 knots) and is positioned just equatorward of the subtropical jet and strong northwesterly flow (50 to 60 knots), which is providing excellent poleward outflow. The system is assessed as subtropical and has potential to transition into a warm- core system within the next two to three days as it tracks slowly eastward.

Dynamic models indicate that the subtropical ridge will re- build over the LLCC and the total precipitable water imagery indicates a deep moisture core sufficient for further development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 to 40 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

Vegetation Index of Mozambique and Zimbabwe

15.6S 32.1E

March 6th, 2012 Category: Vegetation Index

Mozambique - January 4th, 2012

This FAPAR image shows the vegetation index of parts of Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Visible by the border between the two countries are Lake Kariba (left edge) and Lake Cahora Bassa (above center). Mozambique has a tropical climate with two seasons, a wet season from October to March and a dry season from April to September; in this image, therefore, it is entering the final month of the wet season.

The vegetation index is generally good throughout, as indicated by the green false-coloring. Some areas of high activity (rusty red) can be seen near the coast and in the upper left quadrant, northwest of Lake Cahora Bassa. Some areas of low activity (yellow) are mixed throughout, particularly south of Lake Cahora Bassa.

Tropical Cyclone Irina Expected to Move Towards Mozambique

27.6S 29.5E

March 4th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) - March 3rd, 2012

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Track of TS 14S - March 4th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 14S

Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S), located approximately 90 nm east-southeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked southwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 18 feet. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows that TC 14S is regenerating deep convection and turning back into the Mozambique Channel.

Despite the recent movement away from land, rainbands in the outer periphery are generating downpours along the coast, especially between Maputo and Inhambane, Mozambique. The other concentration of heavy convection associated with the storm is displaced to the distant southwest, a product of convergence within the belt of easterlies feeding into the system.

An ASCAT image depicts an expansive area of persistent gales over the southeastern quadrant. An SSMIS image shows the improved organization in the convective banding, and the 37 ghz image reveals a developing microwave eye. PGTW upper level streamline analysis depicts a cyclone just north of Inhambane, and its associated subsidence is stifling convection over the northeastern quadrant of the storm.

The cyclone has been retrograding slowly southwest and neither filling nor deepening. Total precipitable water loops confirm a general lack of deep moisture over the northern semicircle. Sscatterometry data also confirm the lop-sided nature of the system, with expansive areas of gale force winds over the poleward semicircle and a very narrow area of gales on the equatorial side. Animated water vapor imagery indicates that the system has lost the superb equatorial outflow channel that existed 24 hours ago, but vigorous poleward outflow persists, and there is adequate outflow over the western quadrant.

The upper level cyclone is severely impinging on outflow over the northern semicircle. Water vapor animation also shows a deep mid-latitude trough tracking over South Africa that will exert an increasing steering influence on the storm during the next 24 hours, along with a boost to poleward outflow. The upper levels of the storm and the northwesterlies ahead of the trough are going to begin linkage during the next 12 hours.

Currently, Irina is being kept over the western Mozambique Channel by a low- to mid-level anticyclone directly south of Madagascar, which is part of the subtropical ridge. The anticyclone is beginning to give way and reorient eastward, allowing the system to drift back towards the center of the channel. The retreating anticyclone coupled with the southeastward draw from the approaching trough will cause a net southward movement of the storm over the next 24 hours. The majority of model guidance indicates the trough will be a near miss and not couple with the storm, passing over the system between TAU 24 and 48. Following the passage of the trough, the subtropical ridge will rebuild south of Madagascar and Irina will resume movement towards southern Mozambique, where it will maintain intensity at low tropical storm strength in the moderately favorable environment of the Mozambique Channel. Thus, the forecast continues to call for a slow reversal back towards landfall over southern Mozambique after TAU 24 and a relatively flat intensity trend through landfall.