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Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Forecast to Begin Extra Tropical Transitioning

19.5S 75.9E

February 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) – February 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) - February 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S), located approximately 1110 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked south-southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 21 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection sheared over the southeast quadrant of the LLCC. Despite the recent weakening trend, an SSMIS image indicates deep convective banding wrapping from the east quadrant into the southwest quadrant and tightly-curved, shallow banding elsewhere.

The initial intensity is assessed at 70 knots based on the lower end of Dvorak current intensity estimates ranging from 65 to 90 knots. TC 15S is forecast to track southeastward along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge and will encounter strong (40 to 60 knots) vertical wind shear (VWS) and cooler SSTs (24 to 25C), which will serve to rapidly weaken the system.

Gino is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 12 and should complete ETT by TAU 36. The dynamic models indicate a weak ETT with the remnant low becoming quasi-stationary near TAU 36 and turning northwestward as a strong high builds in to the south. The model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, therefore, there is high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Due to the strong VWS and cooler SST, there is a possibility that the system will weaken below 35 knots prior to completing ETT.

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Shifts to South-southeastward Motion – February 14th, 2013

14.8S 75.9E

February 14th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) – February 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) - February 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) continues to track around a subtropical ridge (STR) located to the east, and has shifted from a southwestern track to a more south-southeastward motion over the past 12 hours. As the system continues to track along the southwestern quadrant of the STR, an approaching mid- latitude trough will quickly lead to strong VWS over the LLCC.

Sea surface temperatures are currently marginal and have been steadily declining over the past 12 hours, with further cooling expected through TAU 72. The steady weakening trend and increasing interaction with the mid-latitude trough will begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 48. ETT will be complete by TAU 72 as VWS and SST values rapidly deteriorate. Model guidance is in fair agreement leading to high confidence in the JTWC forecast track.

Eye of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Becoming Less Organized

7.7S 75.9E

February 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) – February 12th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) - February 12th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S),located approximately 875 nm south- southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked south-southeastward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 26 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a slight weakening of the deepest areas of convection around the low level circulation center (LLCC), and is supported by the recent Dvorak estimates from PGTW and KNES.

The eye has become less organized over the past 12 hours and is becoming obscured by convection as it is sheared from the band along the northwestern quadrant. A recent series of microwave images supports the weakening of the eye in the low- to mid-levels.

Upper level analysis indicates a slight increase from low to moderate levels of vertical wind shear (VWS) (10 to 15 knots) as the upper level anticyclone has become slightly displaced to the northwest of the LLCC.

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) at 75 Knot Intensity – February 13th, 2013

7.7S 75.9E

February 13th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) – February 12th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) - February 12th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S), located 700 nm southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked south-southwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imatery (MSI) shows a ragged eye has developed over the past 12 hours with deep banding wrapping into the low level circulation center (LLCC). A TRMM image supports the recent improvements in organization observed in MSI. Upper level analysis indicates a vigorous radial outflow associated with a point-source anticyclone located over the LLCC, which is also creating a low vertical wind shear (VWS) environment.

The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates from PGTW and KNES indicating 75 knots. TC 15S continues to track around the northwest periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) and is expected to continue tracking around the STR through the forecast period.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently favorable (28 degrees Celsius) but will steadily decrease over the next 72 hours, becoming unfavorable by TAU 36. In addition, VWS is expected to increase as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the southwest, becoming unfavorable (greater than 30 knots) by TAU 48.

Extra-tropical transition is forecast to begin by TAU 48 as decreasing SST values, increasing VWS, and the approaching trough lead to the transition of the system to a cold-core low by TAU 72. Model guidance is in fair agreement leading to high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. Maximum significant wave height is 23 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) Forecast to Intensify

9.3S 77.3E

February 13th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) – February 11th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S) - February 12th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 15S

Tropical Cyclone Gino (15S), is tracking along the northwest periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge, which is forecast to weaken with the approach of a mid-latitude shortwave trough over the next 48 hours, allowing the system to re-curve into the mid-latitude westerlies.

TC 15S is forecast to intensify through TAU 48 under favorable upper-level conditions, peaking at 85 knots. After TAU 48, the system will begin to weaken due to increasing VWS and cooler SSTs (less than 25ºC).

Gino is forecast to begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) near TAU 72 and will complete ETT by TAU 96 as it becomes embedded within the baroclinic zone. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement with minor differences in the timing of re-curvature and track speeds in the extended TAUs. There is high confidence in the JTWC track forecast. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

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