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Area of Convection Near Darwin, Australia

February 4th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Area of convection - February 4th, 2009

Area of convection - February 4th, 2009

Location of area of convection

Location of area of convection

An area of convection has persisted near 15.4S 125.2E, approximately 360 nautical miles west-southwest of Darwin,  in Australia’s Northern Territory.

The satellite image shows the part of the area of convection nearest to Darwin. The  inverted grayscale image shows the location of this area of convection (far left), as well as two others near Australia.

Animated water vapor imagery shows an elongated area of deepening convection that is slowly moving to the west.

The low level circulation has formed along an extension of the monsoon trough.

Environmental analysis indicates strong vertical wind shear; however, off-shore water temperatures are warm.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure at 998mb.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is poor.

source JTWC

Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) Forms by Cape York Peninsula, Australia – January 22nd, 2013

17S 138.5E

January 22nd, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) – January 21st, 2013

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Track of Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P) - January 21st, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 11P

On 17 January, TCWC Darwin reported that a tropical low had formed near the coast of Northern Australia. The system intensified into a category one tropical cyclone on 21 January (click here for previous images).

Tropical Cyclone Oswald (11P), located approximately 155 nm east-northeast of Mornington Island, Australia, has tracked east- northeastward at 05 knots over the past six hours. The initial position is based on radar imagery with good confidence.  In the full image, the outline of the Cape York Peninsula can be observed in grey, through the convection, due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.

Over the past twelve hours, animated infrared (IR) satellite imagery has depicted slight weakening of deep convection near the center. However, IR imagery continues to show an extensive area of deep convection displaced to the north. The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots

Radar imagery depicts weak convective banding associated with the broad low-level circulation center (LLCC). Recent observations from Kowanyama, approximately 20 nm southwest of the center, indicate sustained surface winds of only 15 to 20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots.

TC 11P is forecast to track east-northeastward through TAU 12 and is expected to dissipate by TAU 12. The remnants of the system should turn southward to southwestward in response to a building high to the south and are not forecast to track over the Coral Sea. Dynamic guidance is in good agreement on turning the system southward over land but differs on the timing and degree of the turn. Due to the broad nature of the LLCC and the spread in model solutions, there is low confidence in the JTWC forecast track.

Area of Convection Over Gulf of Carpentaria Has Medium Chance of Becoming Cyclone

January 21st, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 20th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 20th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

An area of convection is located near 16.6S 136.9E, approximately 425 nm southeast of Darwin, Australia.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a steady increase in deep convection over the northern half of a poorly defined low level circulation center (LLCC). The LLCC continues to track eastward towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, but currently remains over land. In the full image, the outline of the gulf can be observed in grey, through the convection, due to the use of the Chelys Satellite Rapid Response System (SRRS) “borders” feature.

Radar imagery from Mornington Island, Australia supports the LLCC approaching the coast. Upper level analysis indicates the LLCC is located poleward of a subtropical ridge axis and in a region of weak upper level convergence, which is hampering outflow. Observations in the vicinity of the LLCC indicate a central pressure of approximately 998 mb.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 998 mb. Based on the persistent deep convection and the LLCC approaching the Gulf of Carpentaria, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Area of Convection Off Australia Coast Has High Probability of Becoming Tropical Cyclone

13.6S 118.3E

January 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 6th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 6th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

The formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible in the Timor Sea, off the coast of Australia, within 120 nm either side of a line from 11.1S 121.5E to 13.4S 118.2E within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. METSAT imagery indicates that a circulation center is located near 11.4S 120.9E. The system is moving westward at 09 knots.

The area of convection previously located near 11.0S 123.5E  (click here for previous images) is now located near 11.4S 120.9E, approximately 590 nm west of Darwin, Australia. Recent multispectral and enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidation of convection, with fragmented bands wrapping around a low level circulation center (LLCC).

Upper level analysis indicates this area is approximately five degrees north of an anticyclone, providing good outflow and low (10 knots) vertical wind shear. Additionally, as the system moves southward, strong gradient-induced upper level winds moving into the southwestern region of Australia should further enhance the outflow over the next 24 hours.

Sea surface temperatures are a very favorable 30-31 degrees celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. Due to increased consolidation of the LLCC, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.

Tropical Low Off Coast of Australia

14.1S 122.5E

January 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Area of Convection – January 6th, 2013

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Track of Area of Convection - January 6th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of Area of Convection

On 5 January, TCWC Darwin reported that a weak tropical low had formed within the Timor Sea about 160 km (100 mi) to the southeast of Dili in Timor-leste. The low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and is being closely monitored.