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Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S) Tracks West-Southwestward

21.9S 56.9E

March 20th, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Cherono - March 19th, 2011

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Track of TC 18S

Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S), located approximately 595 nm east of La Reunion, has tracked west-southwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Animated water vapor satellite imagery shows the convection associated with the system has significantly reduced and shallowed. This is confirmed by a microwave image depicting a low level circulation center fully detached from marginal convection to the southeast.

The initial intensity is extrapolated from recent imagery showing 20-30 knot wind barbs around the periphery of the system. Upper level analysis indicates the system is now just to the south of the ridge axis in an area of moderate (25-30 kt) northwesterly vertical wind shear.

TC Cherono is expected to continue be steered by the subtropical ridge to the southeast and tracking west- southwestward, before dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water by TAU 48. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S) in Indian Ocean

15.5S 71.9E

March 18th, 2011 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Cherono - March 17th, 2011

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Track of TC 18S

Tropical Cyclone Cherono (18S), located approximately 515 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked west-southwestward at 10 knots during the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows convective banding wrapping into a low level circulation center. The initial intensity is based on estimates of 40 knots.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is under a point source with low vertical wind shear and favorable radial outflow. Sea surface temperatures are favorable (26 degrees celsius).

TC 18S is currently tracking along the northern periphery of a low- to mid-level steering ridge and is expected to track generally west-southwestward during the first 48 hours.

As the system intensifies, the primary steering mechanism will become more mid- to upper-level and result in a more southwesterly track for 18S.

Around TAU 72, vertical wind shear associated with an upper level trough will cause the system to begin weakening. Peak intensity has been adjusted to 70 knots from 55 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 14 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Intensifying Steadily

11.4S 56.2E

April 9th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 8th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 8th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S) will turn poleward after TAU 36 as a mid-latitude trough approaching from the southwest weakens the steering ridge. Steady intensification is expected over the next 36 hours as vertical wind shear relaxes and the cyclone passes across warm water. Enhanced poleward outflow after TAU 36 will result in a brief period of faster intensification before increasing westerly vertical wind shear ushers in slow weakening.

Although dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement with this forecast scenario, spread in the sharpness of the poleward turn remains. This trend is also noted in ensemble model products. Based on this spread in the guidance, there is decreased confidence in the JTWC forecast track after TAU 48. Maximum significant wave height is 19 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (21S) Tracking Westward

12.7S 59.0E

April 9th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 8th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 8th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Imelda (TC 21S), located approximately 755 nm northeast of La Reunion, has tracked westward at 09 knots over the past six hours. The current position is based on recent satellite fixes from PGTW and KNES and an SSMIS pass.

The current intensity of 45 knots is set slightly above a consensus of subjective Dvorak estimates from multiple reporting agencies based on structure evident in microwave imagery and higher automated intensity estimates. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection flaring over a low level circulation center (LLCC) evident in the aforementioned SSMIS pass.

TC 21S lies slightly equatorward of an upper-level ridge axis, in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear and radial outflow aloft. The system is tracking westward along the periphery of a subtropical ridge to the south.

Tropical Cyclone Twenty One (21S) Expected to Intensify – April 8th, 2013

11.1S 59.0E

April 8th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 8th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) - April 8th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 21S

Tropical Cyclone Twenty One (TC 21S) will continue to track west-southwestward through TAU 48 under the influence of the deep layered sub-tropical ridge (STR) to the south.

A gradual decrease in vertical wind shear (VWS) and fair outflow will allow for intensification. Additionally, a pool of higher ocean heat content located along the forecast track will aid in this intensification. After TAU 72, a deep layer mid-latitude trough will move in from the west and begin to reorient the STR in the north-south direction, allowing for TC 21S to turn poleward.

The forecast calls for a peak intensity of 95 knots by TAU 96. Though dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement with the poleward deflection in the extended forecast, the timing and sharpness in the deflection are still unclear. This is further evidenced by increasing spread noted in ensemble model products. There is high confidence in the three day forecast, but low confidence in the extended portion.