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Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Makes Landfall Over Bangladesh – May 17th, 2013

21.5N 90.7E

May 17th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 16th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) located approximately 53 nm southeastward of Dhaka, Bangladesh, has tracked north-northeastward at 22 knots over the past six hours.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) reveals tc mahasen has made landfall northwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh and is rapidly falling apart as the system has become disorganized. Radar imagery from Kolkata, India additionally shows the rapid weakening as convection has shallowed.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Approaching Bangladesh

15.2N 83.3E

May 16th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 15th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is forecast to track northeastward along the poleward oriented subtropical ridge until westerly flow advects the system overland.

Upper level  analysis indicates an anticyclone to the east of the system  continues to move into better vertical alignment with the low level circulation center (LLCC),  leading to a decrease in vertical wind shear (VWS) to low levels (10  knots).

A slight intensification over the next 12 hours is expected as the LLCC remains in a low VWS environment, but due to the track speed and proximity to the coast of Bangladesh, this increase will be short-lived. Dissipation is expected to begin upon making landfall around TAU 24 and will be fully dissipated by TAU 36. Dynamical model guidance is in tight agreement, leading the JTWC forecast to be positioned close to the multi-model consensus with high confidence.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Moving Closer to Bangladesh

14.2N 84.3E

May 15th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 14th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

As of 1730 IST (1200 UTC), May 14 2013,  Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) was located near latitude 14.5°N and longitude 86°E, about 850 km northwest of Port Blair, 460 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, 650 km south-southeast of Paradip and 1060 km southwest of Chittagong.

The storm is forecast to maintain intensity and move northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast close to Chittagong by late hours of 16 May. Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated at 75 km/h (45 mph), gusting to 95 km/h (60 mph). Estimated minimum central pressure is at 996 hPa.

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) Expected to Intensify and Make Landfall Over Bangladesh

14.5N 85.2E

May 13th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) – May 11th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm Mahasen  (01B) - May 11th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 01B

Tropical Storm Mahasen (01B) is expected to overcome the current dry air entrainment and intensify to a peak of 75 knots by TAU 72 as the system crosses the ridge axis into an area of increased poleward outflow with its exposure into the strong westerlies.

After TAU 96, the system will make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, as a significant cyclone all while weakening due to the land interaction. Dynamic model guidance continues to show two different track solutions. GFDN and NAVGEM continue to track the system to the northwest into northeastern India, which seems unlikely as the model trackers seem to be erroneously tracking into the previously mentioned shortwave trough.

GFS, ECMWF and EGRR have stayed consistent with the recurve scenario into Bangladesh albeit at different translational speeds. Due to this, the JTWC forecast remains faster and east of multi-model consensus to offset the NAVGEM and GFDN solutions and is consistent with the previous forecast. Due to the large spread in the model solutions and the low confidence in the initial position, forecast confidence remains low.

Tropical Storm 03B Near Coasts of Bangladesh and India – November 18th, 2012

20.1N 86.7E

November 18th, 2012 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Three (03B) – November 18th, 2012

Track of Tropical Storm Three (03B) - November 18th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 17E

A area of low pressure formed in the Bay of Bengal on 12 November. It gradually drifted northwestwards and organized itself until November 17, when the JTWC issued a TCFA on the system, reporting 30 knot winds at the center. About half an hour following the TCFA, the IMD upgraded the area of low pressure into a Depression, and further into a Deep Depression, the same evening.

Tropical Depression 03B developed a well-defined LLCC with increasing deep convection located to the north of the system. In an environment with moderate vertical wind shear and ample sea surface temperatures, the depression deepened further. The same night, the JTWC initiated advisories on the system, classifying it as a tropical storm with one minute sustained winds of 35 knots.

As of 1:00 PM IST (7:30 AM UTC), 18 November 2012, Tropical Storm 03B was located near latitude 16.0°N and longitude 88.0°E, about 900 km east-northeast of Chennai, 550 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 500 km southeast of Paradip. The system is forecast to intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm and move westwards during the next 12 hours, and then west-southwestwards towards the coasts of south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu in the subsequent 72 hours. The Dvorak intensity of the storm is T2.0