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Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) Southwest of Perth, Australia – January 15th, 2013

27.8S 109.6E

January 15th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 14th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 14th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) located approximately 195 nm west-southwest of Perth, Australia, has tracked and accelerated southward at 18 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 19 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) Affecting Western Australia

21.5S 111.0E

January 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) began as a weak tropical low that formed within the Timor Sea about 160 km (100 mi) to the southeast of Dili in Timor-Leste. Two days later TCWC Perth commenced regular bulletins under the designation 05U.

The system reached category one tropical cyclone status on 8 January and subsequently was named Narelle. As of 12 January, Narelle was a category 5 severe cyclone, with a cyclone warning between Roebourne and Coral Bay, and a cyclone watch between Coral Bay and Carnarvon. On 12 January, people living in Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay were told to prepare for the storm.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) Tracking Southward – January 14th, 2013

21.2S 111.7E

January 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 13th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S), located approximately 310 nm southwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 24 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) depicts a rapidly decaying system with stratocumulus clouds beginning to wrap around and only shallow convection left obscuring a defined low level circulation center. An SSMIS image concurs with the MSI and is beginning to show dry air wrapping into the system from the south. There is good confidence in the initial position based on the aforementioned imagery.

The initial intensity is assessed at 55 knots based on Dvorak current intensity estimates of 55 knots from PGTW and APRF. Narelle is forecast to track south- southwestward along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge through TAU 12. After TAU 12, the system will recurve southeastward in response to a deep midlatitude shortwave trough.

TC 08S is expected to weaken rapidly as it tracks over cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and will also begin extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 24 and is expected to complete ETT by TAU 36. Dynamic model guidance is in tight agreement through the forecast period, lending to high confidence in the JTWC forecast track. There is a possibility that the system will weaken below 35 knots before completing ETT due to the cold SSTs and strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) Intensity at 80 Knots – January 13th, 2013

21.2S 111.7E

January 13th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 12th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 12th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S), located approximately 195 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 32 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) indicates that TC 08S remains tightly wrapped around a well defined low level circulation center (LLCC) but convection has continued to weaken. A TRMM microwave image reveals the bulk of deep convection remains limited to the western semi-circle. The initial position is based on the well defined LLCC readily apparent in the MSI loop.

The initial intensity is assessed at 80 knots based on Dvorak current intensity estimates of the 77 knots from PGTW and KNES and is line with the latest CIMSS satcon intensity estimate of 81 knots. Upper level analysis reveals Narelle is located equatorward of the subtropical ridge (STR) axis with strong poleward outflow into the westerlies and moderate (10-20 knots) easterly vertical wind shear.

TC 08S is currently tracking southwestward along the western periphery of the STR located over Western Australia. The system is forecast to continue tracking southward along the western edge of this STR through TAU 24. After TAU 24, the system will recurve southeastward in response to a deep midlatitude shortwave trough. Narelle is expected to weaken rapidly as it tracks over cool sea surface temperatures (SST), beginning extra-tropical transition (ETT) by TAU 36 and is expected to complete ETT by TAU 48. Due to forecast strong vertical wind shear and cold SSTs, a possibility still remains for dissipation of the system before completing ETT.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S) Reaches Peak Intensity – January 12th, 2013

19.9S 113.4E

January 12th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm 08S – January 11th, 2013

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Track of Tropical Storm 08S - January 11th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TS 08S

Tropical Cyclone Narelle (08S), located approximately 335 nm north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 46 feet.

Recent animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows an approximately 25 nm eye and an 111753z AMSU-B 89 ghz image depicts the deepest convection contained to the northern and western quadrants with a slight weakness in the southeastern quadrant of the eye wall. There is high confidence in the initial position given the eye.

Initial intensity was based on congruent Dvorak estimates of 115 knots from PGTW, KNES, and APRF. Upper-level analysis indicates the cyclone resides just equatorward of the subtropical ridge (STR) axis under light to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS). Recent animated water vapor imagery shows excellent poleward outflow enhanced by a connection into the mid-latitude westerlies and weaker equatorward outflow due to upper-level troughing well northwest of the system.

TC 08S is tracking along the northwestern periphery of a deep-layered STR anchored over south-central Australia. The cyclone is expected to round the western edge of this ridge over the next 72 hours before it re-curves southeastward as the ridge recedes in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. This re-curvature will coincide with the system getting absorbed into the baroclinic zone, becoming a cold core low by TAU 96.

Narelle has peaked in intensity and should gradually weaken mainly due to increasing VWS and cooling sea surface temperatures. After TAU 72, these harsh conditions will exponentially escalate; therefore, there is a distinct possibility that the system will dissipate before it becomes extra-tropical. Objective aid guidance continues to converge in the near term with the spread increasing beyond TAU 48. Currently, there is only a 70 nm spread between the vortex trackers at TAU 36, near the latitude of Learmonth. The extended forecast remains just inside of the model consensus to offset the western-most outliers (NOGAPS and GFS) and favors the ECMWF, which has so far been the top performing model. High confidence remains in the official JTWC track forecast.

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