Earth Snapshot RSS Feed Twitter
 
 
 
 

Search Results for "92p australia 2013":

Tropical Depression Tim (20P) Expected to Return to Australia Coast – March 14th, 2013

14.9S 139.7E

March 14th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression Tim (20p) – March 13th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Depression Tim (20p) - March 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 20P

Tropical Depression Tim (20P) is tracking southeastward under the influence of the mid-level NER to the north. After TAU 36, this steering mechanism is expected to weaken and be gradually replaced by a deep layer subtropical ridge (STR) to the southeast, which is expected to build in behind Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P).

Storm motion will slow as the steering transition takes place, allowing for further intensification, to a peak of 75 knots. Around TAU 72, the building STR will deflect Tim westward, back toward the Australian coast. Increasing VWS after TAU 72 should start to gradually weaken the system. Maximum significant wave height is 12 feet.

Tropical Depression Tim (20P) Forms Off Coast of Australia

15S 140.9E

March 14th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Depression Tim (20p) – March 12th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Depression Tim (20p) - March 13th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 20P

Tropical Depression Tim (20P), located approximately 240 nm north-northeast of Cairns, Australia, has tracked southeastward at 13 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts deep convection wrapping into a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). A mosaic of recent microwave satellite imagery reveals a hook of deep convection forming along the southern and western peripheries, further verifying the improved wrapping of convection around the LLCC.

The current position is based on fixes from PGTW, KNES, and ABRF, as well as an extrapolation from an AMSU image, with fair confidence. The initial intensity is assessed at 35 knots based on Dvorak estimates from PGTW and ABRF, as well as an OSCAT pass which revealed 30 knot winds.

Upper air analysis indicates TD 20P is south of a near equatorial ridge (NER) axis, providing good speed and directional divergence to promote outflow. Some data suggests a point source is forming overhead. The vertical wind shear (VWS) is currently moderate, at 15-20 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Expected to Intensify to 90-knot Peak – March 10th, 2013

21S 154.6E

March 10th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) – March 9th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) - March 8th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 19P

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is currently tracking along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge and forecast to continue to this track through the next two days. Maximum significant wave height is 24 feet.

After TAU 48, an extension of the subtropical ridge to the east is expected to amplify and assume steering, giving Sandra a slightly more southern component. The currently favorable environmental factors will allow TC 19P to intensify to a peak of 90 knots by TAU 48.

After TAU 48, sharply increasing VWS and decreasing sea surface temperatures will begin to weaken the system. Dynamic model guidance remains in fair agreement with slight differences in track speed and the extent of the southern track. Forecast confidence remains high based upon the fair agreement of the dynamic models.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Expected to Intensify Further – March 8th, 2013

18.8S 150.4E

March 8th, 2013 Category: Image of the day, Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) – March 7th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) - March 7th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 19P

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) is currently tracking along the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge. After TAU 48, an extension of the subtropical ridge to the east is expected to build and assume steering, bringing the cyclone to a more southeastward trajectory. All environmental factors support further intensification during the forecast period with a peak of 95 knots expected by TAU 72.

TC 19S should begin to weaken by TAU 120 as Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) increases and ocean parameters become less favorable. Model guidance remains in poor agreement with GFS continuing to depict a curve to the southwest and NOGAPS showing a slow drift to the south. The only model tracker that has remained consistent and verified the best is the ECMWF. Therefore, the current forecast lies close to its solution and remains inline with the previous forecast. Due to the poor model agreement, track forecast confidence remains low.

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) Off Coast of Australia

March 7th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) – March 7th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P) - March 7th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 19P

The area of convection off the coast of Australia (click here for previous images) has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Sandra (19P). The system, located approximately 710 nm northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked northeastward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 15 feet.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows flaring deep central convection over a well-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC). The initial position is based on an extrapolation from an SSMIS 37ghz image, close to the KNES and ABRF center fixes, with poor confidence due to the extrapolation method.

The initial intensity is based on congruent Dvorak estimates of 45 knots from all reporting agencies (PGTW, KNES, and ABRF). Upper-level analysis indicates the system is west of an anticyclone in an area of light to moderate (10-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear (VWS).

Animated water vapor imagery shows ample equatorward outflow with enhanced eastward outflow into deep troughing near the dateline. Additionally, there is slight poleward enhancement to the outflow provided by an upper-level low over eastern Australia.

About Us

Earth Observation

Organisations

Archive

September 2019
M T W T F S S
« Mar    
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30  

Categories


Bulletin Board


Featured Posts

Information

37


Take Action

Widgets