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Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) Expected to Dissipate

16.8S 112.5E

April 12th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 11th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty Two (22s) - April 11th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) will continue tracking poleward throughout the forecast period along the western periphery of the deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) to the east and ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.

Upper level analysis indicates TC 22S is located to the south of the STR axis, with moderate to strong levels (20 to 30 knots) of vertical wind shear (VWS) building in advance of the aforementioned trough. Over the next 48 hours, increasing VWS and decreasing sea surface temperatures will lead to the dissipation of the system to below warning threshold. Model guidance is in good agreement with the forecast track through TAU 48, and leads to high confidence in the forecast track. Maximum significant wave height is 25 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) Tracking Southward at 6 Knots

17.9S 112.5E

April 11th, 2013 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 10th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty Two (22s) - April 10th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) located approximately 625 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southward at 06 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection over the low level circulation center (LLCC) has been steadily becoming less organized as the increasingly unfavorable upper level environment has started to shear the convection to the southeast away from the LLCC.

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) Tracking Southward

13.4S 112.5E

April 11th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 9th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty Two (22s) - April 10th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) will continue tracking poleward throughout the forecast period along the western periphery of the deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east and ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.

The favorable upper-level conditions will now begin to deteriorate as vertical wind shear significantly increases ahead of the trough. Additionally, passage over cooler water south of 20 degrees south will contribute to the erosion of the system, leading to its eventual dissipation by TAU 72. Numerical model guidance is in good agreement through TAU 48 and diverges thereafter due to different depictions of the dissipation.

Tropical Cyclone Victoria (22S) Off Coast of Australia

13.9S 110.3E

April 10th, 2013 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Twenty One (21S) – April 9th, 2013

Enhanced image

Track of Tropical Storm Twenty Two (22s) - April 10th, 2013 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22s

Tropical Cyclone Victoria 22S, located approximately 670 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked southward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 30 feet.

A 12-hour infrared satellite loop shows the system has significantly deepened as convective bands wrapped tighter into a well-defined low level circulation center. The initial intensity of 80 knots is averaged from subjective Dvorak estimates. Upper level analysis indicates the system is now just south of a ridge axis in an area of light to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear (VWS) and strong poleward outflow which have been primarily responsible for the significant intensification.

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa) Weakens Over Past 12 Hours

March 23rd, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa) - March 23rd, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa) - March 23rd, 2009

TC 22S - enhanced image

TC 22S - enhanced image

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa), located approximately 365 nautical miles south-southwest of Cocos Island, has tracked west-southwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Over the past 12 hours TC 22S has continued to weaken with significant decreases in convection. Elongation of the low level circulation center (LLCC) is apparent in animated multi-spectral imagery.

An AMSU-B pass shows mid-level dry air being entrained into the LLCC with little deep convection present. Upper level analysis indicates that Ilsa is located near an upper level subtropical ridge axis in a region of good difluent flow and low vertical wind shear.

Track of TC 22S © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 22S

Ilsa is currently tracking west-southwestward around the subtropical ridge located to the south of the system. Intensity will continue to weaken due to a combination of unfavorable surface conditions and dry air entrainment.

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