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Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken) Intensifies Slightly, but Expected to Weaken

March 19th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken) - March 19th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken) - March 19th, 2009

TC 21P (Ken) - March 18th, 2009 © JTWC

TC 21P (Ken) - March 18th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken), located approximately 265 nautical miles south of Rarotonga, in the Cook Islands, has moved southeastward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 190000z was 12 feet.

The system has maintained convection around its low level circulation center and has slightly increased intensity.

Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows that a front-like convergent line has formed on the north to northeast quadrant of the system.

Environmental analysis indicates TC 21P is rapidly approaching the baroclinic zone, characterized by increasing vertical wind shear and cold air advection.

The cyclone is expected to fully transition into an extra-tropical system within the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken) Remains Almost Stationary

March 18th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken) - March 18th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Tropical Cyclone 21P (Ken) - March 18th, 2009

TC 21P (Ken) - March 17th, 2009 © JTWC

TC 21P (Ken) - March 17th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 21p (Ken), located approximately 190 nautical miles west-southwest of Rarotonga, in the Cook Islands, has remained quasi-stationary over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 10 feet.

Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center (LLCC) with open cell CU to the West of the LLCC.

Animated infrared imagery shows a cell of deep convection to the East of the LLCC with fragmented deep convective bands wrapping into the east side.

A QuikSCAT pass reflects a well formed LLCC with 35 knot unflagged winds circling the center.

Currently the LLCC is located near the 26C sea surface isotherm and is moving into unfavorable sea surface temperatures. Outflow has been hampered with the cross equatorial outflow channel having closed off.

TC 21P is currently beeing steered by the low-level ridge to the East but an approaching mid-latitude trough will become the dominant steering influence in the next 12 hours.

Ken will accelerate to the Southeast where it will begin extra-tropical (ET) transitioning. It is expected to maintain intensity as the approaching mid-latitude trough will enchance poleward outflow as the system moves over cooler water. The system will complete ET transitioning by TAU 36.

Ilsa Expected to Weaken Gradually While Tracking West-Southwestward

March 20th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa) - March 20th, 2009 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa) - March 20th, 2009

TC 22S (Ilsa) - March 19th, 2009 © JTWC

TC 22S (Ilsa) - March 19th, 2009

Tropical Cyclone 22S (Ilsa), located approximately 530 nautical miles east-southeast of Cocos Island, has tracked westward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

The system has slightly intensified as convective bands that are wrapped around the low level circulation center have consolidated and deepened over the past 12 hours.

Enhanced poleward outflow is also evident on animated water vapor satellite imagery. Upper level analysis indicates the cyclone is tracking under an area of low vertical wind shear (VWS) along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension.

The current position and intensity estimates are based on Dvorak satellite fixes from PGTW and APRF with T-number values at 5.5 and 5.0, respectively.

The cyclone is expected to track west-southwestward through the forecast period under the continued steering influence of the sub-tropical ridge.

TC 22S will gradually weaken as VWS will begin to increase and along-track sea surface temperatures drop to below 26 degrees Celsius. Maximum significant wave height at 200000z was 28 feet.