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Tropical Cyclone Koji (16S) Accelerating Southeastward

19.9S 75.9E

March 12th, 2012 Category: Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Cyclone 16S - March 11th, 2012

Enhanced image

Track of TC 16S - March 11th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Koji (16S), located approximately 1200 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has accelerated southeastward at 18 knots over the past six hours.

Animated enhanced satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center (LLCC) has become fully exposed as the main convection weakened and decoupled to the southeast. Upper level analysis indicates the system has moved further away from the ridge axis into an area of strong (30-40 knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear.

Additionally, along-track sea surface temperatures have dipped to below 25 celsius. TC 16S is now tracking on the back side of the steering ridge to the northeast and is expected to rapidly decay and dissipate by TAU 24. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Tropical Cyclone Koji (16S) Tracking Southwestward

16.6S 81.5E

March 11th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone 16S - March 10th, 2012

Enhanced image

Track of TC 16S - March 7th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone Koji (16S), located approximately 930 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked southwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery shows no significant change in the overall structure of the system except for a slight cooling of the associated convective tops. Upper level analysis indicates the cyclone has just crossed into the poleward side of the ridge axis in an area of rapidly increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS).

TC 16S is beginning to round the western edge of the steering subtropical ridge to the east, weakened by a mid-latitude trough that is currently digging in from the southwest. The cyclone is expected to track in a more poleward trajectory after TAU 12, gradually weaken, and dissipate by TAU 72 due to the strong VWS. Maximum significant wave height is 26 feet.

Tropical Cyclone 16S in Indian Ocean

13.9S 97.7E

March 8th, 2012 Category: Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone 16S - March 7th, 2012

Enhanced image

Track of TC 16S - March 7th, 2012 © Univ. of Wisconsin

Track of TC 16S

Tropical Cyclone 16S, located approximately 255 nm southwest of Cocos Island, Australia, has tracked west-southwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours.

Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a large convective central dense overcast (CDO) with outflow primarily along the poleward semi-circle. The deepest convection is to the southwest of the low level circulation center (LLCC) due to the effects of easterly vertical wind shear (VWS). Upper-level analysis indicates that the LLCC is located just equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis with 10-15 knots of VWS.

Despite its proximity to the ridge axis, the outflow is currently being constrained by a complex upper level synoptic pattern, resulting in an intensification rate that is expected to be slightly less than climatological values. The current intensity is assessed at 40 knots. Maximum significant wave height is 16 feet.

TC 16S is tracking along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge (STR) and is forecast to track west-southwestward to southwestward through TAU 72. After TAU 72, TC 16S will re-curve southward as a deep trough over the central Indian Ocean moves through. TC 16S should reach its peak intensity of 70 knots at this time as it rounds the ridge axis with minimal VWS. After TAU 72, the system will weaken as it encounters increasing VWS. Model guidance is in tight agreement through TAU 72 but diverges near the re-curve point. This forecast is in line with the previous forecast and is just slightly inside consensus after TAU 72. There is no evidence of extra-tropical transition until the system tracks south of 30s latitude (after TAU 120) and begins to interact with the midlatitude westerlies.

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