Tropical Cyclone 02B (Aila) - May 24th, 2009

TC 02B enhanced image

Track of TC 02B

Tropical Cyclone 02B (Aila), located approximately 130 nautical miles south of Kolkata (Calcutta), India, has accelerated northward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height is 20 feet.

Animated water vapor imagery shows radial outflow has improved and convective bands have consolidated around a more symmetrical low level circulation center.

Aila is being steered under the subtropical ridge axis by a mid-level anti-cyclone to the east-southeast.

Environmental analysis indicates low vertical wind shear values of 10 knots aloft and along-track sea surface temperatures in excess of 28 Celsius. Both of these factors will sustain the system before it makes landfall south of Kolkata before TAU 12.

People along the Bay of Bengal coastline from Orissa, India to Bangladesh have been advised to be prepared for affects of TC 02B as it travels north towards the India – Bangladesh border region. When the cyclone makes landfall, wind speed is expected to be approximately 70 mph, or near hurricane strength.

Aila could bring torrential rains causing widespread flooding in West Bengal, Bangladesh, and the Kolkata metro region, with a population of 15 million. Other potential problems include infrastructure damage from flooding and wind damage to poorly constructed buildings.

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