Tropical Storm 25W - November 6th, 2009

Track of TS 25W

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Tropical Storm 25W, located approximately 570 nm west of Wake Island, has tracked eastward at 6 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared imagery shows the system has generated deep, central convection that is starting to wrap into a partially exposed low level circulation center (LLCC).

An AMSU microwave image captures the wrapping convection but also indicates the presence of dry air to the southwest of the system center that may entrain and impact the system’s structure in the coming day or two.

In the upper levels, animated water vapor imagery indicates the system still has good poleward outflow, though it has waned slightly over the past 12 hours as the upper-level ridge located east of the system has built poleward.

TS 25W also sits in an area of moderate vertical wind shear (20 to 30 knots). The system is expected to track slowly northeastward along the western edge of the mid-level ridge and intensify over the next 12 hours.

Thereafter, TS 25W should gradually pull out to the northeast and dissipate by TAU 72 as it tracks over unfavorable sea surface temperatures and under hostile vertical wind shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies. Maximum significant wave height is 11 feet.

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